Why leave things to chance?
My fully fledged thesis is that:
1. Musk is obviously playing the stock market. (small float iPo, solarcity backroom conversations, high frequency of comments on social media about his stock, large stock incentives built into his compensation based on product but not financial goals, comingling of unrelated business entities into a unified pyramid of sorts (spaceX,tesla, scty ))
2. Musk is colluding with the longs and some speculators to manipulate his stock. (hedge fund operators trading stock options, baron portfolios also trading options and making unrealistic performance projections on tv, automation of stock market leading to few possible investment opportunities, fidelity’s overly large size and interests in space x )
It is important to know that 1 and 2 are separate charges and some would argue grey areas. In other words, in a public company, an executive can and is obligated to speak to stakeholders of his enterprise at large. Some of that communication could be considered playing to the public and the stock market. My contention is Musk is fraudulent since I believe he’s gone over the grey areas, but so is the tightly controlled shares and under-regulated markets. In other words, if 1 and 2 are true, the market is also obviously fraudulent.
The counter to my statements is that what I say cannot be proved. But neither can anyone prove that I am wrong. So that would lead to stalemate, except.
3. I think there is enough evidence to suggest 1) Musk signaling is not purely random 2) His longs have in fact acted on his information in the past..ie bought solar city before it was taken over by Tesla…comments by one hedge fund operator at a Tesla meeting that he squeezed shorts..etc
If all this is true then I am left with one thing? Why?
There maybe more than one reason. It isn’t all about the money, but it is more an esoteric and meaningless debate for someone else to answer. Obviously Musk and Longs can rationalize their manipulations for the good of the planet or some kind of normative ethical behavior (externalities mis-pricing ).
There though is one last connection. Which is to say just how manipulated is the stock market?
The answer has to be that is very manipulated…but beyond scope of Tesla being the fraud on the market.
What I also contend is that most of the public have no idea that this is going on.
Another way to say that is the trace of the manipulative behavior is communicated and almost even accepted, but there is fine level detail of how it is done that is particular disturbing and troubling for the markets at large.