Tesla is a ponzi scheme……and why we wait for each quarterly earnings

“The mortgage industry, Dugan realized, had become obsessively focused on offering loans with the lowest possible payment – with the expectation that each mortgage would be refinanced before it adjusted” – from The End of Wall Street  

Tesla has no intention to make money and has failed to do so when it tried.  It is expected to perpetually raise more capital to stay in business. This quality of Tesla’s business has been noted by its critics. In absence of the fundraising, Tesla would be bust. There though is some amount of money that Tesla can only be tolerated to lose. Where that threshold is impossible to say exactly. So what does it look like for Tesla on an income statement level to continue to lose the amounts of money its history has shown?

How about checking the slope of Tesla’s losses to its revenues on a quarterly basis.

The last 16 quarters in a row looks as follows.

Screenshot 2017-12-22 14.17.18.png-0.121 MEDIAN
-0.2133 1ST QUARTILE
16 COUNT

Probably nothing.

 

and a linear model to this data… (revenues and “reported” net income on a quarterly basis for 16 straight periods).

Screenshot 2017-12-22 14.39.26

and what this means if Tesla has 12B ins sales.

Using the most reccent sales to losses coefficient it would be $2.4 billion dollars roughly but to its quarterly regression linear fit.

Screenshot 2017-12-22 14.42.21

$1.4 billion dollars.

I just picked the 12 billion dollars out of a hat.

 

 

Categories:

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s